Here's my predictions for the night, and the Oscar goes to...
Best Picture
“Black Swan” Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
“The Fighter” David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
“Inception” Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
“The Kids Are All Right” Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
“The King's Speech” Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
“127 Hours” Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
“The Social Network” Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
“Toy Story 3” Darla K. Anderson, Producer
“True Grit” Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
“Winter's Bone" Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers
Who will win: “The King's Speech”
Who should win: “The King's Speech”
Who could win: “The Social Network”
The 411: The Social Network was an early favorite but the buzz has tapered off following the release of The King’s Speech. It’s a 50/50 split on the winner, but look for the King to carry the momentum on Oscar night.
Directing
“Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
“The Fighter” David O. Russell
“The King's Speech” Tom Hooper
“The Social Network” David Fincher
“True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
Who will win: David Fincher
Who should win: Tom Hooper
Who could win: Tom Hooper
The 411: If best picture goes to The King’s Speech then look for David Fincher to carry home the statue as a consolation prize. As close as the race is for best picture I don’t think that Oscar voters will go for a sweep of the top two prizes, but it’s a possibility so keep Tom Hooper in your back pocket.
Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
Colin Firth in “The King's Speech”
James Franco in “127 Hours”
Who will win: Colin Firth
Who should win: Colin Firth
Who could win: Colin Firth
The 411: Colin Firth’s performance was to good for him to be denied.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone”
Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush in “The King's Speech”
Who will win: Christian Bale
Who should win: Christian Bale
Who could win: Geoffrey Rush
The 411: Christian Bale has been the favorite in this category all season long, but within the last few weeks there has been a show of support for Geoffrey Rush who worked tirelessly behind the scenes to get King’s Speech into production. However, I think it’s too little to late and Bale will deservedly bring home the statue.
Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter's Bone”
Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”
Who will win: Natalie Portman
Who should win: Natalie Portman
Who could win: Annette Bening
The 411: Natalie Portman’s a media darling right now so look for her to continue her winning streak to awards night, but don’t count out the seasoned professional, Annette Bening, for an Oscar upset.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter in “The King's Speech”
Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”
Who will win: Melissa Leo
Who should win: Helena Bonham Carter
Who could win: Hailee Steinfeld
The 411: Melissa Leo is the favorite, but she might have angered some Oscar voters with her self-promoting award campaign and website. Should she be snubbed look for the kid, Hailee Steinfeld to win or Helena Bonham Carter for the upset.
Animated Feature Film
“How to Train Your Dragon” Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
“The Illusionist” Sylvain Chomet
“Toy Story 3” Lee Unkrich
Who will win: “Toy Story 3”
Who should win: “Toy Story 3”
Who could win: “Toy Story 3”
The 411: Toy Story 3 is nominated for best picture, look for it to dominate this category.
Art Direction
“Alice in Wonderland” Production Design: Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Karen O'Hara
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1” Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
“Inception” Production Design: Guy Hendrix Dyas; Set Decoration: Larry Dias and Doug Mowat
“The King's Speech” Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Judy Farr
“True Grit” Production Design: Jess Gonchor; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
Who will win: “The King's Speech”
Who should win: “The King's Speech”
Who could win: “Alice in Wonderland”
The 411: Alice in Wonderland’s CGI fantasy setting and Tim Burton vision would make you think that it could bring home the trophy, but the more traditional Oscar votes will want to reward the more traditional films. Look for “The King's Speech” to bring it home.
Cinematography
“Black Swan” Matthew Libatique
“Inception” Wally Pfister
“The King's Speech” Danny Cohen
“The Social Network” Jeff Cronenweth
“True Grit” Roger Deakins
Who will win: “True Grit”
Who should win: “True Grit”
Who could win: “Inception”
The 411: Roger Deakins deserves a win and I think this is his year. Look for “Inception” to carry the more technical categories.
Costume Design
“Alice in Wonderland” Colleen Atwood
“I Am Love” Antonella Cannarozzi
“The King's Speech” Jenny Beavan
“The Tempest” Sandy Powell
“True Grit” Mary Zophres
Who will win: “The King's Speech”
Who should win: “The King's Speech”
Who could win: “Alice in Wonderland”
The 411: Jenny Beavan is a previous winner and that combined with the momentum that “the King’s Speech” is bringing to awards night should give her the win, but don’t count out two time winner Colleen Atwood.
Documentary (Feature)
“Exit through the Gift Shop” Banksy and Jaimie D'Cruz
“Gasland” Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic
“Inside Job” Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
“Restrepo” Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger
“Waste Land” Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley
Who will win: “Inside Job”
Who should win: “Inside Job”
Who could win: “Exit through the Gift Shop”
The 411: Banksy’s “Exit through the Gift Shop” has been more widely viewed than the others in this category, but without “Waiting for Superman” in the field “Inside Job” seems to be more of a contender. Restrepo is a longshot for the upset.
Documentary (Short Subject)
“Killing in the Name” Jed Rothstein
“Poster Girl” Sara Nesson and Mitchell W. Block
“Strangers No More” Karen Goodman and Kirk Simon
“Sun Come Up” Jennifer Redfearn and Tim Metzger
“The Warriors of Qiugang” Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon
Who will win: “Strangers No More”
Who should win: “Strangers No More”
Who could win: “Killing in the Name”
The 411: I think Oscar voters will be more attracted to the lighter subject matter of “Strangers No More” than the heavier subject matter in this category. Should voters give an “A” for effort then look to “Killing in the Name,” easily the most challenging film to make in this category.
Film Editing
“Black Swan” Andrew Weisblum
“The Fighter” Pamela Martin
“The King's Speech” Tariq Anwar
“127 Hours” Jon Harris
“The Social Network” Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter
Who will win: “The Social Network”
Who should win: “The Social Network”
Who could win: “The King's Speech”
The 411: Typically (six of the last ten) winners of the best picture category will win film editing, but this year’s ACE winner for best picture was “The Social Network” and in the four years that the “Eddies” have gone out every ACE Best Picture winner has won the film editing Oscar. Look for that trend to continue.
Foreign Language Film
“Biutiful” Mexico
“Dogtooth” Greece
“In a Better World” Denmark
“Incendies” Canada
“Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)” Algeria
Who will win: “In a Better World”
Who should win: “Biutiful”
Who could win: “Incendies”
The 411: “In a Better World” is a favorite because of it’s Golden Globe win, however Javier Bardem’s performance in “Biutiful” could carry it to an Oscar win.
Makeup
“Barney's Version” Adrien Morot
“The Way Back” Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
“The Wolfman” Rick Baker and Dave Elsey
Who will win: “The Wolfman”
Who should win: Any film that wasn’t nominated
Who could win: “The Way Back”
The 411: “The Wolfman” was a forgettable film, but it doesn’t have much competition here, if Oscar voters have short memories look to “The Way Back” to pull an upset.
Music (Original Score)
“How to Train Your Dragon” John Powell
“Inception” Hans Zimmer
“The King's Speech” Alexandre Desplat
“127 Hours” A.R. Rahman
“The Social Network” Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Who will win: “The Social Network”
Who should win: “The Social Network”
Who could win: “The King's Speech”
The 411: Nothing would be better than seeing Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross take the podium on Oscar night, but Alexandre Desplat is long over due and could knock them off.
Music (Original Song)
“Coming Home” from “Country Strong” Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
“I See the Light” from “Tangled” Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
“If I Rise” from “127 Hours” Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
“We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3" Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
Who will win: “We Belong Together”
Who should win: “We Belong Together”
Who could win: “If I Rise”
The 411: Randy Newman is a Oscar favorite, but look out for A.R. Rahman who won two years ago for Slum Dog.
Short Film (Animated)
“Day & Night” Teddy Newton
“The Gruffalo” Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
“Let's Pollute” Geefwee Boedoe
“The Lost Thing” Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
“Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)” Bastien Dubois
Who will win: “The Gruffalo”
Who should win: “The Gruffalo”
Who could win: “Day & Night”
The 411: “The Gruffalo” has recognizable voice talent and should win.
Short Film (Live Action)
“The Confession” Tanel Toom
“The Crush” Michael Creagh
“God of Love” Luke Matheny
“Na Wewe” Ivan Goldschmidt
“Wish 143” Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite
Who will win: “Wish 143”
Who should win: “Wish 143” or “Na Wewe”
Who could win: “Na Wewe”
The 411: Equally difficult films to deal with I’m going with “Wish 143” because it tempers the difficult subject matter with humor and that should sit better with Oscar voters. I’ve not seen any of the films in this category, but of the five nominees it’s the one I want to see.
Sound Editing
“Inception” Richard King
“Toy Story 3” Tom Myers and Michael Silvers
“Tron: Legacy” Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague
“True Grit” Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey
“Unstoppable” Mark P. Stoeckinger
Who will win: “Inception”
Who should win: “Inception”
Who could win: “True Grit”
The 411: Look for “Inception” to be rewarded in the technical categories since it won’t win any of the major ones. “True Grit” is a long shot at best.
Sound Mixing
“Inception” Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick
“The King's Speech” Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley
“Salt” Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin
“The Social Network” Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten
“True Grit” Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland
Who will win: “Inception”
Who should win: “Inception”
Who could win: “The Social Network”
The 411: “The Social Network”could pull a win due to momentum in the major categories, but I think Inception will take this one.
Visual Effects
“Alice in Wonderland” Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1” Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and Nicolas Aithadi
“Hereafter” Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojansky and Joe Farrell
“Inception” Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb
“Iron Man 2” Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright and Daniel Sudick
Who will win: “Inception”
Who should win: “Inception”
Who could win: “Alice in Wonderland”
The 411: “Inception” should pull this off for being able to bring Nolan's vision to realization, while “Alice in Wonderland” was equally visually stunning, the film was forgettable. Inception gets the technical hat-trick in the technical categories.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
“127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
“The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
“Toy Story 3” Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
“True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“Winter's Bone” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini
Who will win: “The Social Network”
Who should win: “The Social Network”
Who could win: Aaron Sorkin
The 411: It’s Aaron Sorkin…
Writing (Original Screenplay)
“Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
“The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson;
Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
“Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
“The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
“The King's Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler
Who will win: “The King's Speech”
Who should win: “The King's Speech”
Who could win: “Inception”
The 411: “Inception” won the WGA and Oscar voters could reward Nolan for being snubbed in the director category, but “The King's Speech” wasn’t eligible for the WGA award so look for it to pick up the award here.
